Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 0.009783 0.011051 0.012444 0.014091 0.015991 0.018120 0.020692
2024-12-15 0.007708 0.009396 0.011419 0.014038 0.017361 0.021468 0.026979
2024-12-22 0.006335 0.008106 0.010347 0.013424 0.017584 0.023082 0.031009
2024-12-29 0.005565 0.007405 0.009841 0.013353 0.018360 0.025362 0.036107
2025-01-05 0.005216 0.007188 0.009909 0.014008 0.020147 0.029198 0.043933
2025-01-12 0.004596 0.006511 0.009241 0.013501 0.020140 0.030361 0.047836
2025-01-19 0.004125 0.005991 0.008730 0.013144 0.020277 0.031710 0.052172
2025-01-26 0.003820 0.005681 0.008490 0.013160 0.020978 0.034011 0.058424
2025-02-02 0.003688 0.005617 0.008613 0.013754 0.022681 0.038183 0.068645
2025-02-09 0.003422 0.005317 0.008329 0.013638 0.023144 0.040235 0.075231
2025-02-16 0.003233 0.005122 0.008195 0.013754 0.024018 0.043127 0.083918
2025-02-23 0.003007 0.004845 0.007896 0.013545 0.024262 0.044847 0.090468
2025-03-02 0.002875 0.004724 0.007863 0.013836 0.025529 0.048825 0.102806
2025-03-09 0.002702 0.004518 0.007668 0.013809 0.026186 0.051695 0.113322
2025-03-16 0.002462 0.004174 0.007196 0.013205 0.025604 0.051875 0.117565
2025-03-23 0.002321 0.003997 0.007010 0.013135 0.026111 0.054477 0.128229
2025-03-30 0.002286 0.004009 0.007175 0.013778 0.028211 0.060959 0.150206
2025-04-06 0.002112 0.003749 0.006801 0.013281 0.027748 0.061422 0.156235
2025-04-13 0.001970 0.003540 0.006512 0.012930 0.027572 0.062547 0.164363
2025-04-20 0.001882 0.003427 0.006399 0.012945 0.028241 0.065855 0.179565
2025-04-27 0.001860 0.003441 0.006541 0.013529 0.030330 0.073115 0.208523
2025-05-04 0.001768 0.003310 0.006378 0.013414 0.030704 0.075927 0.224206
2025-05-11 0.001705 0.003232 0.006318 0.013529 0.031664 0.080489 0.246874